中国经济的过去、现在与未来

——在罗森海姆应用科学大学的讲座（稿）

The Past, Present, and Future of the Chinese Economy

——Lecture at Rosenheim University of Applied Sciences（Technische Hochschule Rosenheim，TH Rosenheim）

（2026年5月6日 10:00）

(10:00 on May 6, 2026)

尊敬的科斯特校长，

尊敬的霍尼格教授，

尊敬的弗莱施曼教授，

各位老师、亲爱的同学们：

大家上午好！

Dear President Koster,

Dear Professor Honig,

Dear Professor Fleischmann,

Dear teachers and fellow students，

Good morning everyone!

非常荣幸今天受邀来到充满思辨与创新精神的罗森海姆应用技术大学，与各位青年朋友们分享一个影响全球的重要议题——中国经济的过去、现在与未来。

It is a great honor to be invited today to Rosenheim University of Applied Sciences（Technische Hochschule Rosenheim，TH Rosenheim）, to share with you an important subject - the past, present, and future of the Chinese economy.

我也借此机会祝贺科斯特校长不久前刚刚对中国进行了成功的访问，进一步推进了罗森海姆应用技术大学与中国高校间的合作。

I also wish to take this opportunity to congratulate President Koster on your recent successful visit to China, which has further promoted cooperation between TH Rosenheim and Chinese universities.

中国作为世界第二大经济体，其发展历程被公认为人类经济史上的奇迹。中华人民共和国成立后，特别是中国实行改革开放后，中国从一个相对封闭落后的农业国，成长为深度融入全球经济的现代化国家。未来，中国将以高质量发展为核心，继续扮演世界经济增长稳定器和动力源的角色。

As the world's second-largest economy, China's development process is widely recognized as a miracle in human economic history. After the establishment of the People's Republic of China, especially after the implementation of reform and opening up, China has grown from a relatively closed and backward agricultural country to a modern country deeply integrated into the global economy. In the future, China will focus on high-quality development and continue to play the role of a stabilizer and driving force for global economic growth.

今天，我重点从四个维度与大家分享中国经济概况，希望这场分享能为大家理解中国经济、把握合作机遇提供有益参考。

Today, I will focus on the Chinese economy from four dimensions, hope to provide useful information for you to understand the Chinese economy and seize cooperation opportunities.

在进入经济专题前，我想首先带大家简要梳理一下中国历史发展的核心线索。历史是解开现实和未来发展的一把钥匙，了解一些中国的历史有助于大家理解当下和未来的中国。

Before entering the economic topic, I would like to briefly outline the core clues of China's historical development. History is a key to unlocking reality and future development, and some knowledge of China's history can help one better understand the present and future of China.

古老的中华文明早已闻名于世，五千年来一脉相承、从未中断，一直延续到今天。在漫长的历史发展进程中，中华民族统一的多民族国家得以不断巩固和发展，终于形成56个民族共同组成的中华民族大家庭。

The Chinese civilization has long been renowned in the world, and has lasted for five thousand years without interruption, and has continued to this day. In the long process of historical development, the unified multi-ethnic country of the Chinese nation has been continuously consolidated and developed, finally forming the Chinese big family composed of 56 ethnic groups.

1840年是中国历史的一个转折点，这一年鸦片战争爆发，中国进入近代史时期。此时起，各帝国主义国家几乎都侵略和欺凌过中国，中国成为一个半殖民地半封建社会国家，国家危机四起，中华民族陷入了深重的灾难。此时起，中国人民也开启了为实现中华民族独立、解放和伟大复兴而不懈奋斗的历史。中国无数的志士仁人前仆后继、不懈探索，寻找救国救民道路，太平天国运动、戊戌变法、义和团运动、辛亥革命，种种努力带来希望，但种种救国方案都相继失败了。1921年中国共产党诞生，这是开天辟地的大事变，深刻改变了近代以来中华民族发展的方向和进程,开启了中国人民救亡图存斗争的崭新阶段。中国共产党领导中国人民经过工人运动和农民运动、北伐战争、土地革命战争、抗日战争和人民解放战争，终于在1949年建立了人民当家作主的新中国即中华人民共和国，中国实现了民族独立、人民解放，确立了社会主义基本制度，为当代中国一切发展进步奠定了根本政治前提和制度基础。

1840, when the Opium War broke out, was a turning point in Chinese history, and China entered the period of modern history. From this time on, almost all imperialist powers have invaded China, making China a semi colonial and semi feudal society. National crises have arisen, and the Chinese nation has fallen into a profound disaster. At that moment, the Chinese people have also embarked on a road of unremitting struggle to achieve the independence, liberation, and great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Countless patriots and brave individuals in China have tirelessly explored and sought ways to save the China and its people. The Taiping Rebellion, the Hundred Days' Reform, the Boxer Rebellion, and the 1911 Revolution all brought hope and then vanished, various plans to save the country have failed one after another. 

In 1921, the CPC was founded and this was an epoch-making event, profoundly changing the direction and process of the the Chinese nation since modern times, and opening a new stage in the struggle of the Chinese people to save the nation from subjugation. Under the leadership of the CPC, the Chinese people conducted the labor movement and the peasant movement, the Northern Expedition, the Agrarian Revolutionary War, the Chinese People’s War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, and the People's Liberation War, and finally established the New China, that is, the People's Republic of China in 1949. China achieved national independence and the people's liberation, and established the basic socialist system, laying the fundamental political premise and institutional foundation for all development and progress in contemporary China.

1949年中华人民共和国的成立是中国历史的新的转折点，中国从此真正走上了国家发展和实现中华民族伟大复兴的道路。

The establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949 was a new turning point in Chinese history, and China truly embarked on the path of national development and the realization of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

一、中国经济的发展历程与成就

1、 The Development History and Achievements of the Chinese Economy

中国经济的崛起，是一部从封闭到开放、从贫穷到富裕、从追赶至并跑的奋斗史，大致可分为三个关键阶段。

The rise of the Chinese economy is a history of from being closed to open, from poverty to prosperity, and from trying to catch up to running parallel with rest of the world, which can be roughly divided into three key stages.

（一）奠基期。新中国成立之初，经济基础极为薄弱，1952年GDP仅约300亿美元，工业几乎空白，80%以上人口从事农业。毛泽东主席1954年说过这样一句话：“现在我们能造什么？能造桌子椅子，能造茶碗茶壶，能种粮食，还能磨成面粉，还能造纸，但是，一辆汽车、一架飞机、一辆坦克、一辆拖拉机都不能造。”在外部封锁、内部百废待兴的背景下，中国确立“自力更生、艰苦奋斗”方针，集中力量推进工业化，过1978年实行改革开放时，已经建立起独立的工业体系和国民经济体系，为后续腾飞打下坚实基础。

（1）Laying the foundation period. At the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, the economic foundation was extremely weak. In 1952, the GDP was only about 30 billion US dollars, and the industry was almost blank. More than 80% of the population was working in agriculture. In 1954, Chairman Mao Zedong once said, "What can we produce now? We can produce tables and chairs, tea bowls and teapots, grow grains, grind flour, and make paper. However, we cannot make a car, an airplane, a tank, or a tractor." Against the backdrop of external blockade and devastated economy at home, China adopted the policy of "self-reliance and hard work," concentrating its efforts on promoting industrialization. By the time of the reform and opening up in 1978, an independent industrial system and national economic system had been established, laying a solid foundation for subsequent takeoff.

（二）腾飞期。1978年，中国开启改革开放伟大征程，这是决定当代中国命运的关键抉择。对内，从农村家庭联产承包责任制到城市市场经济改革，打破计划经济束缚，激发亿万民众创造力。对外，从设立经济特区到加入世界贸易组织，主动融入全球化，引进外资、技术和管理经验，这一阶段，中国经济实现年均增长9.8%的奇迹，远超全球同期3%左右的增速。2010年中国GDP超越日本，成为世界第二大经济体，制造业、出口规模跃居世界第一，被誉为“世界工厂”。

（2） Taking period. In 1978, China embarked on a journey of reform and opening up, which was a crucial decision that determined the future of contemporary China. Internally, from the rural household contract responsibility system to the urban market economy reform, China has broken the constraints of the planned economy and stimulated the creativity of billions of people. Externally, from establishing special economic zones to joining the WTO, China has wholeheartedly integrated into economic globalization, and China's economy achieved a miracle of an average annual growth rate of 9.8%, far exceeding the global growth rate of around 3%  during the same period. In 2010, China's GDP surpassed Japan to become the world's second largest economy, and its manufacturing and export scale jumped to the top of the world, earning it the title of "World Factory".

（三）转型期。2012年以来，中国经济进入新发展阶段，增速从高速转为中高速，发展模式从要素驱动、投资驱动转向创新驱动、质量优先。经济总量持续跨越，2020年GDP突破100万亿元（14.7万亿美元），2025突破140万亿元（19.9万亿美元），占全球经济比重稳定增长。产业结构不断优化，高技术制造业、数字经济、绿色能源快速发展，新能源汽车、光伏、5G等领域跻身全球前列。对外开放持续深化，进博会、广交会、投洽会等平台搭建，外资准入不断放宽，营商环境持续优化。

（3） Transition period. Since 2012, the Chinese economy has entered a new stage of development, with the growth rate shifting from high-speed to medium high speed, and the development model shifting from factor driven and investment driven to innovation driven and giving priority to quality. The total economic output continues to grow, with GDP exceeding 

100 trillion yuan (14.7 trillion US dollars) in 2020 and over 140 trillion yuan (nearly 19 trillion US dollars)in 2025, steadily increasing its share in the global economy. The industrial structure continues to optimize, with rapid development in high-tech manufacturing, digital economy, and green energy. New energy vehicles, photovoltaics, 5G, among others have reached the top in the world. The opening up to the outside world continues to deepen, with the establishment of platforms such as the China International Import Expo, Canton Fair, and China International Fair for Trade and Investment. Foreign investment access to Chinese market continues to be relaxed, and the business environment continues to optimize.

我这里也谈点关于脱贫的工作。解决绝对贫困问题始终是中国共产党治国理政中的一件大事，并为此进行了不懈的努力，取得显著成就。2012年中共十八大后，习近平总书记作出政治决定，一定要在2020年打赢脱贫攻坚战并最终实现了这个目标。中国的脱贫攻坚取得全面胜利，现行标准下近1亿农村贫困人口全部脱贫，中华民族延续几千年的绝对贫困问题得到历史性解决。中国对全球减贫的贡献率超过70%。

Here I would also like to touch upon topic of poverty alleviation. Solving the problem of absolute poverty has always been a major task for the CPC, and China has made unremitting efforts to achieve the objective generation after generation. After the 18th National Congress of the CPC in 2012, General Secretary and President Xi Jinping made a political decision to win the battle against poverty in 2020 and this goal was ultimately achieved. By 2020, China has achieved a comprehensive victory in poverty alleviation, with nearly 100 million rural poor lifted out of poverty under current standards. The absolute poverty problem that has lasted for thousands of years in the Chinese history has been resolved. And China's contribution to global poverty reduction exceeds 70%.

中国的脱贫攻坚成就给予了广大发展中国家以信心和启示，只要找对路，只要肯努力，贫困可以战胜。中国也为全球发展和减贫事业作出积极努力和贡献。2021年，习近平主席提出“全球发展倡议”（Global Development Initiative, 简称GDI），核心理念是“六个坚持”：坚持发展优先，坚持以人民为中心，坚持普惠包容，坚持创新驱动，坚持人与自然和谐共生，坚持行动导向。GDI获得了联合国等国际组织以及130多个国家的积极响应和支持，80多个国家加入联合国框架下“全球发展倡议之友小组”。中国设立“全球发展和南南合作基金”，增资至40亿美元。中国还联合中外金融机构设立了高达140亿美元的“全球发展专项资金”。累计动员了超过230亿美元的资金支持“全球南方”的发展振兴。建立了包含1800多个项目的全球发展项目库。大规模人力资源培训，培训了超过20万名各类人才。成立南南合作与发展学院，为70多个国家培养了400多名硕士和博士。

China's achievements in poverty alleviation have given confidence and inspiration to developing countries. The key to this is, as long as they find the right path and are willing to work hard, poverty can be overcome. China has also continued to make huge efforts and contributions to global development and poverty reduction. In 2021, President Xi Jinping proposed the Global Development Initiative (GDI), with the core concept of adhering to six aspects, that is, adhering to prioritizing development, putting people at the center, promoting inclusiveness, promoting innovation driven development, promoting harmony between mankind and nature, and promoting action oriented development. The GDI has well received from international organizations such as the United Nations and over 130 countries, with more than 80 countries joining the "Friends of Global Development Initiative Group" under the UN framework. China has established the Global Development and South South Cooperation Fund, increasing its capital to 4 billion US dollars. A "Global Development Special Fund" of up to 14 billion US dollars was also established in collaboration with domestic and foreign financial institutions. More than 23 billion US dollars have been mobilized to support the development and revitalization of the 'Global South'. A global development project inventory containing over 1800 projects was established. Over 200,000 talents of various types have received training. The South South Cooperation and Development Institute was established and has trained over 400 master's and doctoral students in more than 70 countries.

回到中国的经济话题：如今的中国，已成为世界第二大经济体、第一大工业国、第一大货物贸易国、第一大外汇储备国，是全球经济增长的第一大贡献者，年均贡献率超25%。中国拥有全球最完整的工业体系，超14亿人口、4亿中等收入群体形成超大规模内需市场，潜力持续释放。而这一切的成功，离不开稳定的政策环境、持续的改革开放、庞大的人才红利、完整的产业体系，更离不开融入世界、互利共赢的发展理念。

Now coming back to the economic topic of China: Nowadays, China has become the world's second largest economy, the largest industrialized country, the largest trading nation in goods, and the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves. China is the largest contributor to global economic growth, with an average annual contribution rate of over 25%. China has the most complete industrial system in the world, with a population of over 1.4 billion and a middle-income group of 400 million, forming a super large domestic market and which is continuously unleashing its potential. And all of this success cannot be achieved without a stable policy environment, continued reform and opening up, a huge talent dividend, a complete industrial system, and even more importantly, the development concept of integrating into the world and mutual benefit and win-win cooperation.

二、当前经济政策、“十五五”规划蓝图以及对中德、中巴州经贸合作的影响和意义

2、 Current economic policies and the blueprint of the 15th Five Year Plan，its implications for economic and trade cooperation with Germany and the State of Bavaria 

当前，中国经济面临结构性调整、外部环境复杂、增长动力转换的三重挑战，但长期向好的基本面没有改变。中国政府坚持稳中求进、以进促稳，以高质量发展为首要任务，以新质生产力为核心引擎，推动经济持续回升向好。

Currently, the Chinese economy is facing three challenges: structural adjustment, complex external environment, and transformation of growth drivers, but the long-term positive fundamentals have not changed. The Chinese government adheres to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, prioritizing high-quality development, and using new quality productivity as the core engine to promote sustained economic recovery and improvement.

（一）当前核心经济政策

（1） Current core economic policies

1、扩大内需，夯实增长根基。中国始终坚持内需为主、内外联动，把恢复和扩大消费摆在优先位置，稳定汽车、家电等大宗消费，培育新能源、人工智能等新型消费，推进新型城镇化、乡村振兴释放城乡消费潜力。同时扩大有效投资，重点支持科技创新、产业升级等领域，发挥投资“稳增长、补短板”作用。

1. Expand domestic demand and solidify the foundation of growth. China has always adhered to the principle of domestic demand as the mainstay, while also making internal and external linkage, putting the recovery and expansion of consumption as the top priority, stabilizing bulk consumption such as automobiles and household appliances, cultivating new types of consumption such as new energy and artificial intelligence, and promoting new urbanization and rural revitalization to unleash the potential of urban and rural consumption. At the same time, China expands effective investment, focuses on supporting areas such as technological innovation and industrial upgrading, and give full play to the role of investment in stabilizing growth and filling gaps.

2、科技创新，培育新质生产力。在科技创新领域，中国坚持科技自立自强，加快发展新质生产力。2025年，中国研发经费投入强度达到 2.80%，首次超过 OECD（经济合作与发展组织）国家的平均水平。聚焦芯片、人工智能、生物医药、高端装备、航空航天等关键核心领域突破“卡脖子”问题，推动产学研深度融合，促进科技成果转化应用。推动数字经济与实体经济深度融合，加速传统产业数字化转型。

2. Promote technological innovation and cultivate new quality productivity. In the field of technological innovation, China adheres to self-reliance and self-improvement in science and technology, accelerates the development of new quality productive forces. In 2025, China's R&D expenditure intensity reached 2.80%, surpassing the average level of OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries for the first time. China focuses on key core areas such as chips, artificial intelligence, bio-medicine, high-end equipment, and aerospace, breaking through the bottleneck problem, promoting deep integration of industry, academia, and research, and promoting the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements. China promotes the deep integration of digital economy and real economy, and accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries.

3、深化改革，优化营商环境。在深化改革方面，中国坚持市场化、法治化、国际化方向，破除体制机制障碍，建设全国统一大市场，完善市场经济基础制度，持续优化营商环境，全面取消制造业领域外资准入限制，保障外资企业平等参与政府采购、标准制定、知识产权保护。

3. Deepen reforms and optimize the business environment. In terms of deepening reforms, China adheres to the directions of marketization, legalization, and internationalization, removes institutional and mechanistic barriers, builds a unified national market, improves the fundamental systems of the market economy, continuously enhances the business environment, fully lifts foreign investment access restrictions in the manufacturing sector, and ensures equal participation of foreign-funded enterprises in government procurement, standard-setting, and intellectual property protection.

4、绿色低碳，推动可持续发展。中国始终践行“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念，落实碳达峰、碳中和目标。加快能源结构转型，大力发展风电、光伏、水电、核电等可再生能源，2025年中国非化石能源消费占能源消费总量的比重达到了 21.7%，推进工业、建筑、交通等各领域节能降碳，发展绿色制造、循环经济，培育新的经济增长点。

4. Green and low-carbon development, promoting sustainable growth. China consistently adheres to the principle that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets," striving to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. China is accelerating the transition of its energy structure by vigorously developing renewable energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power. In 2025, the proportion of non-fossil energy consumption reached 21.7%. Efforts are underway to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions across various sectors, including industry, construction, and transportation, while fostering green manufacturing, circular economy, and cultivating new economic growth drivers.

5、对外开放，构建开放型经济新体制。在对外开放上，中国坚持互利共赢、开放包容，扩大高水平对外开放，稳步扩大制度型开放，对接国际高标准经贸规则，高质量共建“一带一路”，办好各类国际展会，搭建全球共享的开放平台，吸引外资与对外投资并重，鼓励中国企业“走出去”，深度参与全球产业链重构。

5. Opening up to the outside world and building a new system of open economy. In terms of opening up, China adheres to principles of mutual benefit, win-win results, openness and inclusiveness. China will continue to expand high-level opening up, steadily expand institutional opening up, align with international high standard economic and trade rules.  China will continue to engage in high-quality Belt and Road Cooperation, hold various international exhibitions, build an open platform for the world to share, attache equal importance to attracting foreign investment and make foreign investment, encourage Chinese enterprises to "go global" and deeply participate in the restructuring of the global industrial chain.

（二）“十五五”规划核心内容

（2） Core content of the 15th Five Year Plan

2025年10月，中共中央发布《关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，2026年3月全国人大审议通过《“十五五”规划纲要》，为未来五年中国经济社会发展擘画宏伟蓝图。规划的主要目标是高质量发展取得显著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。

In October 2025, the Central Committee of the CPC issued the "Proposal on Formulating the 15th Five Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development", and in March 2026, the National People's Congress approved the "Outline of the 15th Five Year Plan", outlining a grand blueprint for China's economic and social development in the next five years. The main goals of the plan are to achieve significant results in high-quality development, greatly improve the level of technological self-reliance and self-improvement, make new breakthroughs in further deepening reforms, significantly improve the level of culture and ethics, continuously improve the quality of people's lives, make new significant progress in building a beautiful China, and consolidate the national security fences.

规划纲要围绕经济发展、科技创新、民生福祉、绿色生态、安全保障五大领域设定20项主要指标，重点推进构建现代化产业体系、强化科技创新引领、全面深化改革开放、推进城乡区域协调发展、增进民生福祉五大任务，其核心逻辑是淡化速度、聚焦质量，立足内需、创新驱动，绿色转型、开放共赢，为2035年基本实现社会主义现代化奠定坚实经济基础。

The outline sets 20 main indicators around five major areas: economic development, technological innovation, people's well-being, green ecology, and security. It focuses on promoting the construction of a modern industrial system, strengthening technological innovation, deepening reform and opening up, promoting coordinated development between urban and rural areas, and improving people's well-being. The core logic is to downplay speed, focus on quality, based on domestic demand and innovation driven, green transformation, and win-win opening up, laying a solid economic foundation for basically realizing socialist modernization by 2035.

这一发展蓝图对德国而言，意味着巨大的合作空间与增长机遇。中国在新能源、新材料、智能制造、人工智能、生物医药、绿色低碳等领域的战略布局，以及在量子科技、生物制造、氢能和核聚变能、脑机接口、具身智能、第六代移动通信等未来产业的前瞻规划，与德国“工业4.0”、数字化转型和可持续发展议程、高科技议程高度契合。双方产业互补性强、技术耦合度高，德国在高端装备、精密制造、工业软件、氢能技术、医疗设备等领域的领先优势，恰好能与中国庞大的市场容量、完整的产业链配套和快速迭代的应用场景形成强强联合，为德国企业打开更广阔的市场空间、创造更多技术协同与商业模式创新的可能。

This blueprint means enormous cooperation space and growth opportunities for Germany. China's strategic layout in the fields of new energy, new materials, intelligent manufacturing, artificial intelligence, bio-medicine, green and low-carbon, as well as its forward-looking plans in future industries such as quantum technology, bio-manufacturing, hydrogen and fusion energy, brain computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, and 6G mobile communication, are highly compatible with Germany's "Industry 4.0", digital transformation and sustainable development agenda, and high-tech agenda. The two sides have strong industrial complementarity and high technological coupling. Germany's leading advantages in high-end equipment, precision manufacturing, industrial software, hydrogen energy technology, medical equipment and other fields can perfectly form a strong alliance with China's huge market capacity, complete industrial chain matching and rapidly iterating application scenarios, opening up a broader market space for German enterprises and creating more possibilities for technological collaboration and business model innovation.

德国企业若要把握这一历史性机遇，关键在于主动对接中国“十五五”重点产业方向，把自身技术专长与中国市场实际需求相结合，深耕本土合作网络，积极参与联合研发、标准共建与产业链协同布局，在绿色转型、数字赋能与创新驱动的浪潮中找准定位、长期投入，从而在开放共赢的格局中实现更大发展。

If German companies want to seize this historic opportunity, the key lies in actively connecting with China's key industries during the 15th Five Year Plan period, combining their technical expertise with the actual needs of the Chinese market, deepening local cooperation networks, actively participating in joint research and development, standard building, and industrial chain coordination layout, finding the right positioning and long-term investment in the wave of green transformation, digital empowerment, and innovation driven development, and achieving greater development in an open and win-win situation.

今年2月，习近平主席会见默茨总理，指出中德关系不仅关乎两国利益，也对欧洲和世界有重要辐射效应，提出中德要做相互支持的可靠伙伴，开放互利的创新伙伴，相知相亲的人文伙伴。默茨总理表示德方珍视对华关系，愿不断深化两国全方位战略伙伴关系。两国元首的共识为中德关系发展提供了战略指引。

In February of this year, in his meeting with Chancellor Friedrich Merz, President Xi Jinping said that the relationship between China and Germany only bears on the interests of both countries, but also has significant impact on Europe and the world.  It was proposed that China and Germany should be reliable partners that support each other, be innovative partners that champion openness and win-win results, and be partners that understand each other and share close bonds through cultural and people-to-people exchanges. Merz stated that Germany values its relationship with China and is willing to continuously deepen the comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries. The consensus reached by the two heads of state provides strategic guidance for the development of Sino German relations.

中德两国经济高度互补、利益深度交融，是全球产业链、供应链、价值链中的重要伙伴，德国是中国在欧洲最大贸易伙伴、重要投资来源地和技术合作方，中国是德国全球第一大贸易伙伴、重要出口市场和投资目的地，而巴伐利亚州作为德国经济“引擎”、制造业强州，与中国的合作更是中德经贸关系的典范与标杆。

China and Germany have highly complementary economies with deeply integrated interests, making the two sides important partners in the global industrial chain, supply chain, and value chain. Germany is China's largest trading partner, important investment source, and technology partner in Europe, while China is Germany's largest trading partner, important export market, and investment destination. As the "engine" of the German economy and a strong manufacturing state, Bavaria's cooperation with China is a model and benchmark for Sino German economic and trade relations.

中国市场规模庞大、需求多元、政策稳定、开放包容、机遇众多，是德国企业拓展全球市场、实现可持续发展的重要战略选择。

The Chinese market has a huge scale, diverse demands, stable policies, openness and inclusiveness, and numerous opportunities, making it an important strategic choice for German companies to expand their global market and achieve sustainable development.

总的来说，中国市场机遇大于挑战、合作大于竞争，德国企业只要坚定信心、长期布局、发挥优势、深度本地化、创新合作、合规经营，就一定能在中国市场获得成功、实现共赢、共同成长。

Overall, the opportunities in the Chinese market outweigh the challenges, and cooperation outweighs competition. As long as German companies have firm confidence, make long-term planning, make good use of leverage advantages, deeply localize, value innovation, and operate in compliance with laws, they will definitely succeed, achieve win-win results, and grow together with the Chinese market.

老师们、同学们，

Dear Teachers and students,

回望过去，中国经济波澜壮阔、成就辉煌，是全球化的受益者、贡献者；立足当下，中国经济转型提质、稳中向好，以高质量发展引领新时代；展望未来，中国经济前景广阔、潜力无限，将继续与世界各国携手合作、互利共赢、共同发展。中德友谊源远流长，经贸合作互补共赢、历久弥坚，中国与巴伐利亚州合作紧密、成果丰硕、前景可期。

中国已对包括德国在内的多个国家实施免签停留期为30日的政策，中国还向包括德国在内的欧洲国家青少年推出了“青年使者交流学习计划”项目，为德国青少年提供了前往中国参与丰富多彩的课程和实践活动的机会。中德间要不断密切人文交流，巩固中德友好民意基础。青年是未来、是希望，希望在座各位持续关注中国、了解中国、走进中国，成为中德友好的使者、经贸合作的桥梁、创新交流的纽带，共同书写中德合作新篇章，共创人类美好未来！

最后，感谢大家的聆听！期待与各位进行更加深入的交流与探讨！谢谢大家！

Looking back, the Chinese economy has achieved outstanding results, benefiting from and contributing to globalization; Based on the present conditions, China's economy is improving in quality,  moving steadily for the better, and leading the new era with high-quality development.

Looking ahead to the future, China's economy has vast prospects and huge potential, and China will continue to work hand in hand with countries around the world for mutual benefit and common development.

The friendship between China and Germany has a long history, with complementary and win-win economic and trade cooperation that has stood firm over time. China and the State of Bavaria have close cooperation, fruitful achievements, and promising prospects.

China has implemented a 30 day stay visa free policy for  Germany, and has also launched the “Young Envoys Scholarship” program for European youth， provides German youth with the opportunity to travel to China and participate in a variety of courses and practical activities.China and Germany should strengthen cultural and people-to-people exchanges and consolidate the foundation of friendship. Youth is the future. It is hoped that youth including everyone present here will continue to follow China’s development, learn more about China, and visit China in person, becoming envoys of Sino German friendship, bridges of economic and trade cooperation, and links of innovative exchanges. Let us join hands and write a new chapter of Sino German cooperation and create a better future!

To conclude, thank you all for listening! Looking forward to having further in-depth exchanges and discussions with you! Thanks again!