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Global investment banks lift 2023 China GDP forecast to 6% and higher Release date: 2023-04-28    Source:CGTN

China has exceeded global expectations with an impressive economic rebound in the first quarter of 2023. The success has prompted multiple global investment banks to lift their annual growth forecasts for the country.

J.P. Morgan raised their forecast by a substantial 0.4 percentage point to 6.4 percent, with Citibank following closely behind with an increase from 5.7 percent to 6.1 percent. 

Both Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank also upped their forecasts to 6 percent, citing the current economic situation.

China's GDP grew by 4.5 percent year on year in the first three months of 2023, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. This performance has laid the foundation for the annual development objectives set by the Chinese government, according to Fu Linghui, spokesperson of the NBS.

Despite the impressive momentum of China's fast-paced economic growth, experts have warned that more policy support is necessary to ensure sustainable growth in the country amid uncertain times.

China's authorities are laying out plans to secure a steady consumption trend, such as drawing up measures to improve service spending and revitalizing markets in rural areas.

The country's overall foreign trade has also seen a 4.8 percent year-on-year increase in the first quarter, with trade growth improving since February. 

To stabilize foreign trade further, the State Council has issued a document outlining guidance on more financing support to facilitate the trade sector. The guidance also proposes expanding automobile exports and importing advanced equipment to further trade advancement.

Morgan Stanley predicts that after a strong recovery in the first quarter, China's economic growth will contribute more than 40 percent to global economic growth in 2023. Chinese and Asian economies will outperform and lead globally this year, it said.

Deutsche Bank forecasts the extent of China's contribution to Asian exports will "recover strongly" this year and next, with China's GDP growing 6 percent and 6.3 percent in 2023 and 2024, respectively. This should lift Asian exports, particularly for economies that are more linked to China than U.S., according to Mallika Sachdeva, head of Asia macro strategy at Deutsche Bank.

By Huo Li