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China's GDP growth rate estimated at 5.3% in 2024 Release date： 2024-01-11 Source：chinadaily.com.cn
China's economy is forecast to maintain steady growth in 2024, with an estimated GDP growth rate of around 5.3 percent, said a report released on Tuesday by the Center for Forecasting Science at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
The report indicates that in 2024, the year-on-year growth rates for the primary, secondary and tertiary industries' output are expected to reach 4.5 percent, 4.5 percent and 6 percent, respectively.
Consumption, investment and net exports are estimated to contribute 3.7, 1.9 and -0.3 percentage points to GDP growth, respectively, said the report.
It said China's economic growth in 2024 is expected to show a pattern of starting low and ending high. The GDP growth in the first quarter is projected to be around 5 percent. Growth is expected to stand at around 5.3 percent in the second quarter, 5.5 percent and 5.4 percent in the third and fourth quarters.
"We are confident in China's economic development. A recovery in growth is expected from the real economy to the service industry, among which the service industry is likely to recover with the fastest pace. Emerging industries such as new materials and new energy will also develop rapidly," said Hong Yongmiao, director of the center.
The report highlights that since 2023, China's fixed-asset investment has seen a faster pace of structural improvement. A clear trend was observed as the transformation and upgrading in the manufacturing sector, with strong investment momentum in high-tech, intelligent and green industries, as well as new infrastructure, said the report.
In the first three quarters of 2023, China's final consumption expenditure contributed cumulatively 83.2 percent of GDP growth, continuing to play a stabilizing role in the country's economic development. The report anticipated that in 2024, the nominal year-on-year growth rate of China's consumption is likely to be between 4.2 percent and 5.1 percent, continuing to be a major driving force for economic growth.
By Liu Yukun
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