The 7th China International Import Expo (CIIE) and the 7th Hongqiao International Economic Forum (HQF) are both coming up in November.

And I really like these types of China events.

These are pretty massive events. Think +400,000 attendees.

Here are the basics:

· The CIIE is a "who's who" of foreign businesses investing and building in China. The enterprise & business exhibitions are effectively a crash course in what is happening on the ground. Especially in terms of new products, tech, services by foreign businesses. I always take tons of notes.

· The HQF is a conference with good discussions and lots of real China expertise. Note: I've been covering China for almost 20 years and it's important to know who to listen to (and who not). The speakers and panel members at HQF are really good. Last year, there was the former Prime Minister of France, the Group Chief Executive of HSBC and China President of Danone.

Plus, I find these big China exhibitions are just really fun. They are massive. If you haven't been to one of these, you really should go. Pretty fantastic.

Here are my 3 goals.

Goal 1: Get Smarter about the Rapidly Evolving Situation in China Auto

My research is in technology. And things have been pretty crazy in this area. There is a huge disconnect in the tech world between what is talked about internationally and what has been happening on the ground in China.

That's frustrating. But also, a good opportunity for those of us that write in depth on this subject.

And the epicenter of the China tech discussion right now is automobiles.

China is the world's largest car market. And it's not even close. China accounts for approximately 30% of global sales. In 2023, China's vehicle sales grew 12% to over 30 million units. And (this is the part that really gets attention), China is now over 60% of global renewable energy car sales.

On first pass, that makes China a key market for most foreign automakers. It also makes it the largest source of growth on the horizon.

However, it's really not just about market size anymore.

It's about tech and innovation.

China's auto market is hyper-competitive. And we are seeing auto makers (both foreign and domestic) innovating at a frantic pace. New EVs are being launched every month. New tech breakthroughs are happening in both auto and batteries.

For foreign automakers, China is the Olympics of auto innovation and competition. In new breakthroughs. In design. In production at scale. Competing in the China auto market makes you better. More and more, we are seeing foreign automakers using their China teams and operations as the benchmark for their other operations. It's an innovation epicenter.

And this is going to be a big deal this year at the exhibition and forum. The auto exhibition is the first place I am going to visit in the convention hall. The list of foreign auto exhibitors is pretty great.

For auto, there are going to be demonstration areas for new materials, autopilot technology and, of course, energy storage for cars.

And I expect this to be a big topic of discussion at HQF.

Goal 2: Re-Assess the Tech Innovation Situation Between China and the World

Ok. This is much more my area.

I like auto. But I have been studying China tech businesses (especially the digital innovators) for +15 years. And I have taught both digital strategy and "doing business in China" at places like Peking University and the China Europe International Business School (CEIBS) for much of that time. If you search for topics like Uber vs. Didi, Mobike vs. ofo and Tencent vs. Facebook, you'll likely find my articles going back a decade.

To say I keep a close eye on foreign tech companies active in China is an understatement. I'm constantly looking at their imported products, tech, and services. And their new announcements.

That's what I'm looking for at the events. New announcements. New companies just entering for the first time. New services. These types of events give me a good read on the China and World tech situation. My big question for 2024 is: What is coming next in technology imports into China?

Take a look at some of the foreign tech exhibitors listed. Or as I call them "my people".

We can definitely see who we expected.

Japanese tech leaders like Mitsubishi, Omron, and Sony are there. That's important.

An unrelated story. Years ago, I got a random invitation to talk about Chinese consumer data with the Vice Chairman of Mitsubishi in Beijing. I showed up as a lone Peking University business professor at the big Mitsubishi Beijing headquarters. The Vice Chairman brought his entire team of +10 executives. And so, we ended up sitting across from each other at a huge board room table. I still remember me sitting alone on my side of this massive table. And the vice chairman and his entire team taking the entire other side. It was ridiculous. I should have gotten a photo of it.

Anyways, the tech scene in Japan and China is closely linked. Everyone writes about the US and China, but Japan-China is much more exciting in many ways. Note: SoftBank has an exhibition this year. That’s interesting. They have had a major role in the development of digital China (think early investment in Alibaba), going back to 2000.

We can see the German and northern European engineering companies well represented. Siemens. ABB. Ericsson. Nokia. Airbus. That's pretty standard.

And of course, there is a presence by the American tech giants. Caterpillar. John Deere. 3M. Dell Technologies. Although I suspect much of the conversation will be about the American chip companies present. AMD. Micron. Qualcomm.

And tech companies making their debut this year include:

·  Japanese Mitsubishi Electric

·  US material provider Invista.

·  French transportation company Alstom.

·  Ireland-based auto technology supplier Aptiv.

I'm definitely going to the Mitsubishi exhibit. In addition, there will be an Innovation Incubation Special Section for seed, start-up and growth-stage enterprises.

The Hongqiao Forum should be a good indicator of where technology will transform China’s growth in the next 3-5 years. I think they will also focus on a more inclusive economy.

Goal 3: Get an Update on Long-Term Consumption Growth in China

The topic at the center of these events (in my opinion) is long-term growth in domestic consumption. This is what everyone debates when projecting China GDP growth over the next 10 years. It's a constant topic in the international press.

Most everyone is watching for GDP growth to gradually shift from net exports and investment to consumption. Economists argue this stuff all the time.

It's an important question. But most businesses don't think this way in terms of GDP growth drivers. They think in terms of household consumption over the next 5-10 years. That is usually what drives import decisions and investment. And future income statements. That's what I'm looking for an update on.

The Hongqiao Forum should be very good for this question. Lots of keynotes and discussions. You need people who can talk about these things at the detail level. Household consumption rates can vary significantly by sector and product type. You really want to take them apart sector by sector. And, if possible, product category by product category.

For example, Chinese food, tobacco, and liquor spending has been growing at 3x the rate of spending on clothing and apparel. About 6% versus 2%, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. And medicine and medical service spending have been growing even faster than that (at about 9%).

But that is for urban households. For rural households, the situation is different. Chinese food, tobacco, and liquor spending and clothing and apparel spending have both been at 7-8%. And medicine and medical service spending has been growing at the higher 11%.

Those are my three goals for the two concurrent events.

Last Point: China Exhibitions and Forums Are Awesome

Take a look at the exhibition hall. It's the 360,000 sqm National Exhibition and Convention Center in Hongqiao, Shanghai.

Not to generalize, but China is really good at putting on these types of events. If you haven't been to one of these, this is a good opportunity. It's going to be pretty fantastic.

First, the convention center in Hongqiao is massive. And during these events, it gets completely filled with exhibition booths for both foreign countries and foreign companies. Hundreds of thousands of people attend. And lots and lots of deals get done. Here are some stats from the sixth CIIE in 2023:

· 3,500 exhibitors, including 289 Fortune 500 companies

· +120 countries and regions represented

· +400,000 attendees

· +400 new products, tech and services announced

It's pretty interesting that these two events (CIIE, HQF) have been around since 2018. Themed "New Era Shared Future", the CIIE was the world's first national-level import-focused expo.

The exhibition has 6 major categories of products. These categories are a good indication of where we can expect activity by foreign businesses in China.

1. Food and Agricultural Products

2. Consumer Goods

3. Medical Equipment & Healthcare Products

4. Trade in Service

5. Automobiles

6. Intelligent Industry & Information Technology

At last year's event, we heard pretty interesting announcements about:

·  Big sales by Peruvian in alpaca plush toys.

·  Interesting sales by Afghanistan rug weavers into China.

·  Avocados from Kenyan farmers expanding into the Chinese market.

·  And lots of other agricultural products. Especially from countries like Ethiopia and Laos

For this year, keep an eye on Consumer Goods. The attendees in beauty and cosmetics include Estee lauder, L'Oréal and P&G are attending. And also, in areas like furniture and home appliances, such as Inditex and Ikea. And of course, fashion and accessories. Think, H&M, Swarovski, Puma and Sketchers.

That's my take. It's going to be pretty interesting.

By Jeffrey Towson